{
  "prediction_id": "AGA_synergy_brake_x_accelerator",
  "hypothesis": "AGA 에서 상류 'AR/5-ARI/BMP-antagonist'(Wnt 축 복원) × 하류 '미녹시딜/Wnt-agonist'(DP/anagen 부양) 병용은 Bliss 독립 기대를 초과하는 초가법적 시너지를 보인다 — Hair 산출 A 가 W·D 두 협동 문턱의 곱(AND-게이트)이기 때문.",
  "null_hypothesis": "두 팔은 서로 다른 경로이므로 효과는 가법적(Bliss 독립, 시너지초과=0).",
  "falsification": "실험 Bliss 초과량이 95% CI 내에서 ≤0 이면 A 의 협동적 AND-게이트 가정이 반증됨.",
  "headline": {
    "E_ref": 0.6,
    "synergy_excess_auc": 0.1225,
    "synergy_excess_peak": 0.1271,
    "combo_index_CI": 0.8136,
    "R1": 0.3863,
    "R2": 0.2416,
    "R_combo_actual": 0.657,
    "R_combo_bliss": 0.5346
  },
  "dose_curve": [
    {
      "E": 0.2,
      "metric": "auc",
      "untreated": 4.5963,
      "arm1_only": 4.9209,
      "arm2_only": 4.7491,
      "combo": 5.0775,
      "healthy": 6.4826,
      "R1": 0.1721,
      "R2": 0.081,
      "R_combo": 0.2551,
      "bliss_expected": 0.2391,
      "synergy_excess": 0.016,
      "combo_index_CI": 0.9373
    },
    {
      "E": 0.3,
      "metric": "auc",
      "untreated": 4.5963,
      "arm1_only": 5.0446,
      "arm2_only": 4.8254,
      "combo": 5.2847,
      "healthy": 6.4826,
      "R1": 0.2376,
      "R2": 0.1214,
      "R_combo": 0.365,
      "bliss_expected": 0.3302,
      "synergy_excess": 0.0347,
      "combo_index_CI": 0.9048
    },
    {
      "E": 0.4,
      "metric": "auc",
      "untreated": 4.5963,
      "arm1_only": 5.1508,
      "arm2_only": 4.9014,
      "combo": 5.478,
      "healthy": 6.4826,
      "R1": 0.294,
      "R2": 0.1617,
      "R_combo": 0.4674,
      "bliss_expected": 0.4081,
      "synergy_excess": 0.0593,
      "combo_index_CI": 0.8732
    },
    {
      "E": 0.5,
      "metric": "auc",
      "untreated": 4.5963,
      "arm1_only": 5.2433,
      "arm2_only": 4.977,
      "combo": 5.6609,
      "healthy": 6.4826,
      "R1": 0.343,
      "R2": 0.2018,
      "R_combo": 0.5644,
      "bliss_expected": 0.4756,
      "synergy_excess": 0.0888,
      "combo_index_CI": 0.8427
    },
    {
      "E": 0.6,
      "metric": "auc",
      "untreated": 4.5963,
      "arm1_only": 5.325,
      "arm2_only": 5.052,
      "combo": 5.8356,
      "healthy": 6.4826,
      "R1": 0.3863,
      "R2": 0.2416,
      "R_combo": 0.657,
      "bliss_expected": 0.5346,
      "synergy_excess": 0.1225,
      "combo_index_CI": 0.8136
    },
    {
      "E": 0.7,
      "metric": "auc",
      "untreated": 4.5963,
      "arm1_only": 5.3977,
      "arm2_only": 5.1265,
      "combo": 6.0041,
      "healthy": 6.4826,
      "R1": 0.4249,
      "R2": 0.2811,
      "R_combo": 0.7463,
      "bliss_expected": 0.5865,
      "synergy_excess": 0.1598,
      "combo_index_CI": 0.7859
    },
    {
      "E": 0.8,
      "metric": "auc",
      "untreated": 4.5963,
      "arm1_only": 5.4631,
      "arm2_only": 5.2005,
      "combo": 6.1674,
      "healthy": 6.4826,
      "R1": 0.4595,
      "R2": 0.3203,
      "R_combo": 0.8329,
      "bliss_expected": 0.6326,
      "synergy_excess": 0.2003,
      "combo_index_CI": 0.7595
    }
  ],
  "threshold_sweep": [
    {
      "KDA": 0.2,
      "synergy_excess": 0.1098,
      "R_combo": 0.6472
    },
    {
      "KDA": 0.35,
      "synergy_excess": 0.1154,
      "R_combo": 0.6529
    },
    {
      "KDA": 0.5,
      "synergy_excess": 0.1225,
      "R_combo": 0.657
    },
    {
      "KDA": 0.65,
      "synergy_excess": 0.1309,
      "R_combo": 0.6588
    },
    {
      "KDA": 0.8,
      "synergy_excess": 0.1408,
      "R_combo": 0.6581
    },
    {
      "KDA": 1.0,
      "synergy_excess": 0.1561,
      "R_combo": 0.6534
    },
    {
      "KDA": 1.2,
      "synergy_excess": 0.1716,
      "R_combo": 0.6452
    },
    {
      "KDA": 1.5,
      "synergy_excess": 0.1596,
      "R_combo": 0.6439
    }
  ],
  "threshold_peak_KDA": {
    "KDA": 1.2,
    "synergy_excess": 0.1716,
    "R_combo": 0.6452
  },
  "model_source": "follicle_cycle.py (8-state excitable ODE, COPASI-calibrated healthy cycle)"
}