95 lines
2.8 KiB
JSON
95 lines
2.8 KiB
JSON
{
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"_description": "IJT 반증 반영 모델 수정(ARM-2 Wnt겹침 overlap) + 독립축 재예측. 시너지는 직교축 쌍에서만 생존; 피나×미녹은 겹침→가법미만(관측 정합).",
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"diagnosis": "미녹시딜 Wnt/β-catenin 활성 → 피나와 W축 겹침 → 원 모델의 독립가정 위반.",
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"revision": "ARM-2에 W-겹침 overlap 도입: e_W=1−(1−e1)(1−e2·overlap), e_D=e2(1−overlap).",
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"overlap_sweep": [
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{
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"overlap": 0.0,
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"R1": 0.386,
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"R2": 0.242,
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"R_combo": 0.657,
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"bliss_expected": 0.535,
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"synergy_excess": 0.122
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},
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{
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"overlap": 0.2,
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"R1": 0.424,
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"R2": 0.333,
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"R_combo": 0.689,
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"bliss_expected": 0.616,
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"synergy_excess": 0.073
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},
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{
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"overlap": 0.4,
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"R1": 0.471,
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"R2": 0.425,
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"R_combo": 0.725,
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"bliss_expected": 0.696,
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"synergy_excess": 0.03
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},
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{
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"overlap": 0.5,
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"R1": 0.499,
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"R2": 0.472,
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"R_combo": 0.746,
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"bliss_expected": 0.735,
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"synergy_excess": 0.011
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},
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{
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"overlap": 0.6,
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"R1": 0.532,
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"R2": 0.519,
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"R_combo": 0.77,
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"bliss_expected": 0.775,
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"synergy_excess": -0.005
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},
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{
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"overlap": 0.8,
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"R1": 0.617,
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"R2": 0.622,
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"R_combo": 0.828,
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"bliss_expected": 0.855,
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"synergy_excess": -0.027
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},
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{
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"overlap": 1.0,
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"R1": 0.744,
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"R2": 0.744,
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"R_combo": 0.909,
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"bliss_expected": 0.934,
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"synergy_excess": -0.025
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}
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],
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"synergy_crosses_zero_near": 0.6,
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"pair_predictions": {
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"피나 × 미녹시딜(부분겹침)": {
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"overlap": 0.55,
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"R1": 0.515,
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"R2": 0.495,
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"R_combo": 0.758,
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"bliss_expected": 0.755,
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"synergy_excess": 0.003,
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"verdict": "가법"
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},
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"AR차단 × Wnt-agonist(완전중복=둘다 W)": {
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"overlap": 1.0,
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"R1": 0.744,
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"R2": 0.744,
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"R_combo": 0.909,
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"bliss_expected": 0.934,
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"synergy_excess": -0.025,
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"verdict": "가법미만"
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},
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"W축 약물 × 순수 D약물(직교, Wnt무관)": {
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"overlap": 0.0,
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"R1": 0.386,
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"R2": 0.242,
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"R_combo": 0.657,
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"bliss_expected": 0.535,
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"synergy_excess": 0.122,
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"verdict": "초가법(synergy)"
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}
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},
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"new_falsifiable_prediction": "초가법 시너지는 *기전적으로 직교(한쪽 Wnt 무관 D-제제)* 인 쌍에서만 발생. 피나×미녹 같은 부분겹침 쌍은 가법미만(IJT 2023 관측과 일치).",
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"honest": "overlap은 반증이 가르쳐준 모델 수정(자유예측 아님). 새 예측은 진짜 직교 약물쌍 전향 검정 필요. 미녹 Wnt활성은 문헌 근거(예: 미녹시딜→DP β-catenin↑)."
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} |